Oct 23, 2024–If you share an idea with an old man and he is for it, do it. If he is against it, do it anyway.
An old man told me that bit of advice. And it is good advice. Throughout history, you’ll find examples of men and women of all ages and stations in life who failed to see the value in “the next big thing.”
This is currently happening with skeptics of Elon Musk’s three history-changing projects: settling Mars, affordable personal robots, and completely self-driving electric vehicles. We might not have our hoverboards yet, but those other milestones are familiar to every kid who read 1950s era science fiction. Skeptics are standing about, but we are standing in line with our bitcoin ready to embrace last century’s future.
Humans are notoriously bad at predicting which innovations will take hold and how much impact they will have.
I am guilty. As the mobile phone began infiltrating our lives, I mocked the concept. Why would I want someone to be able to contact me anytime, anywhere? Within a year I was paying hundreds of dollars a month so people could do exactly that.
But I am in good company in my hypocrisy and short-sightedness. Speaking of telephones…
“We already have the telegraph, providing communications for all who desire it. The added virtues of voice communication at a distance are unclear. I think Mr. Bell’s ‘tele- phone’ is a doomed curiosity with no real purpose. Why would any person want to use this ungainly and impractical device when he can send a messenger to the telegraph office and have a clear written message sent to any large city in the United States?”
William Orton, President of Western Union, 1876
The Internet
“By 2005, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
Nobel Prize-winner Paul Krugman
Electricity
“Electricity is just a fad.”
Junius Morgan, to his son J.P. Morgan, 1890
Radio
“I don’t hold with furniture that talks.”
Vaudevillian Fred Allen (who later became one of radio’s biggest stars)
Music
“Recorded music will destroy all musical ability.”
John Philip Sousa, 1906
Sousa believed “automatic music devices” would allow music to be heard in homes without the bother of people learning how to play musical instruments.
Television
“TVs aren’t really going to be a big thing. Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946
Cars
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad. You might make money for a year or two, but in the end you would lose everything you put in.”
The president of Michigan Savings Bank, 1903, giving advice not to invest in Henry Ford’s new business.
Flight
“Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly”
New York Times editorial, 1903
The article predicted it would take ten million years to develop a practical flying machine. Two month later Orville and Wilbur Wright made their first flight.
Shopping Online
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop—because women like to get out of the house, like to handle the merchandise, like to be able to change their minds.”
Time Magazine, 1966
While it is easy to look back and mock the wrong skeptics, we also must give them grace. I admit I was wrong about the need for cell phones, but a part of me now wonders whether it was a good thing to be in constant contact with everyone on the planet. The plus and minus of every advance in technology–cars, TV, the internet–is still debatable.
There was one prediction that I hope will come true because I came up with it independently: “Cleaning the house will require only a hose.”
Waldemar Kaempffert, science editor of the New York Times, 1950
He wrote that by 2000, to clean house you simply turn the hose on everything. Furniture, rugs, draperies, floors, will all be made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor, you’ll turn on a blast of hot air and dry everything.
There’s still time. I’m keeping my hose uncoiled.
XXX
Phil Houseal never believed he would be a writer and owner of Full House PR. Contact him at phil@fullhouseproductions.net, www.FullHousePR.com.